Recent CICM News
Communications Course
25th August 2014
Perth, October 17th 2014.  Numbers are limited! Register today!
>> Read More
Memorial for Ramesh Nagappan
14th July 2014
Memorial for Ramesh Nagappan WHERE: Karralyka Centre - Mines Road, RINGWOOD EAST 3135 WHEN: Wednesday 16th July, 2014 TIME: 3pm – 5pm To assist with arrangements on the day, could you pleas...
>> Read More
Education Conference - Registrations now open
2nd July 2014
CICM Education Conference4-5th September 2014RACV Royal Pines Resort, Gold Coast Register here Program...
>> Read More
Search CICM
GO
Suite 101 168 Greville Street
PRAHRAN VIC 3181
Phone: (03) 9514 2888
Fax: (03) 9533 2657
cicm@cicm.org.au

Disclaimer

Resources - Critical Care and Resuscitation


december 2009


ABSTRACT

 

Background: Predicting future demand for intensive care is vital to planning the allocation of resources.

Method: Mathematical modelling using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was applied to intensive care data from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) Core Database and population projections from the Australian Bureau of Statistics to forecast future demand in Australian intensive care.

Results: The model forecasts an increase in ICU demand of over 50% by 2020, with current total ICU bed-days (in 2007) of 471 358, predicted to increase to 643 160 by 2020. An increased rate of ICU use by patients older than 80 years was also noted, with the average bed-days per 10 000 population for this group increasing from 396 in 2006 to 741 in 2007.

 

Conclusions: An increase in demand of the forecast magnitude could not be accommodated within current ICU capacity. Significant action will be required.

pdf icon Download the full article

 

Crit Care Resusc 2009; 11: 257-260